Lecce vs Juventus — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lecce
12%
Draw
22%
Juventus
66%
Expected goals
0.72–2.00
Lecce · Juventus
Juventus win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.9%), 0–1 (11.9%), 1–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lecce score at least twice in 16%; Juventus in 59%.
Scoreline distribution
Juventus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lecce goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 11% | 21% | 68% |
| Market reference | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| Metis Forecast | 12% | 22% | 66% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lecce | 7.77 |
| Draw | 4.24 |
| Juventus | 1.49 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lecce (Home · 3 matches) | Juventus (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Lecce's home record; away stats use Juventus's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.