Lecce vs Genoa — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lecce
33%
Draw
31%
Genoa
36%
Expected goals
1.28–1.33
Lecce · Genoa
Genoa win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.8%), 0–0 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lecce score at least twice in 37%; Genoa in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Genoa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lecce goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 31% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lecce | 2.85 |
| Draw | 3.06 |
| Genoa | 2.69 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lecce (Home · 3 matches) | Genoa (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Lecce's home record; away stats use Genoa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.