Lazio vs Parma — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lazio
69%
Draw
20%
Parma
11%
Expected goals
2.00–0.77
Lazio · Parma
Lazio win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.6%), 2–0 (13.2%), 2–1 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lazio score at least twice in 61%; Parma in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Parma goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lazio goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market reference | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 20% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.41 |
| Draw | 4.77 |
| Parma | 8.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lazio (Home · 3 matches) | Parma (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Lazio's home record; away stats use Parma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.