🇮🇹 Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:45

Lazio

DWLLW

18:45

9th vs 16th

Genoa

LDDLL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Lazio	2.13	2.13
Draw	3.05	3.05
Genoa	4.22	4.22

Metis Forecast

model + market

Lazio

46%

Draw

31%

Genoa

23%

Lazio 1.52 xGexpected goals1.03 xG Genoa

Lazio win 46% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 53% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.9%).

Lazio score at least twice in 45%; Genoa in 27%.

1–1 14.9%1–0 10.3%0–0 9.7%2–1 9.0%2–0 8.6%0–1 6.3%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	9.7	6.3	3.8	1.3	0.3	0.1
1	10.3	14.9	5.8	2.0	0.5	0.1
2	8.6	9.0	5.6	1.6	0.4	0.1
3	4.4	4.6	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.1
4	1.7	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Lazio goals · columns = Genoa goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score53%

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Over 4.5 goals12%

Lazio clean sheet35%

Genoa clean sheet21%

Lazio score 2+45%

Genoa score 2+27%

Lazio score 3+20%

Model vs market

Source	Lazio	Draw	Genoa
Raw Metis model	48%	27%	25%
Market (de-vigged)	46%	31%	23%
Metis Forecast	46%	31%	23%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.

Recent form

Lazio

24 Aug	A	vs Como	0–2	L
31 Aug	H	vs Hellas Verona	4–0	W
14 Sept	A	vs Sassuolo	0–1	L
21 Sept	H	vs AS Roma	0–1	L
29 Sept	A	vs Genoa	3–0	W

Genoa

23 Aug	H	vs Lecce	0–0	D
31 Aug	H	vs Juventus	0–1	L
15 Sept	A	vs Como	1–1	D
20 Sept	A	vs Bologna	1–2	L
29 Sept	H	vs Lazio	0–3	L

Head to head

30 Jan 26	LaziovsGenoa	3 – 2
29 Sept 25	GenoavsLazio	0 – 3

Lazio: 2W 0D 0L in last 2

Model context

Stat	Lazio (Home)	Genoa (Away)
BTTS rate	42.1%	57.9%
Over 2.5 rate	47.4%	47.4%
Clean sheet	31.6%	26.3%
Avg goals	2.74	2.32

Home stats use Lazio's home record; away stats use Genoa's away record this season.

Lazio →Genoa →🇮🇹 Serie A standings & fixtures