Lazio vs Genoa — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lazio
43%
pick · result
Draw
32%
Genoa
25%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lazio win 43.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lazio win. Expected goals 1.48–1.08 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.0%), 0–0 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lazio (Home · 2 matches) | Genoa (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Lazio's home record; away stats use Genoa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.