Lazio vs Cagliari — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lazio
61%
Draw
23%
Cagliari
16%
Expected goals
1.99–0.96
Lazio · Cagliari
Lazio win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.4%), 2–1 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lazio win is 2–0 (10.4%).
Lazio score at least twice in 59%; Cagliari in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Cagliari goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lazio goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market reference | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 23% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Cagliari | 5.73 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lazio (Home · 3 matches) | Cagliari (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Lazio's home record; away stats use Cagliari's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.