🇮🇹 Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| Draw | 6.27 | 6.27 |
| Parma | 14.95 | 14.95 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketJuventus
79%
Draw
15%
Parma
6%
Juventus 2.29 xGexpected goals0.64 xG Parma
Juventus win 79% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (15.0%).
Juventus score at least twice in 69%; Parma in 13%.
2–0 15.0%1–0 13.8%2–1 11.6%3–0 10.2%3–1 7.9%1–1 7.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Juventus goals · columns = Parma goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score45%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Juventus clean sheet52%
Parma clean sheet8%
Juventus score 2+69%
Parma score 2+13%
Juventus score 3+40%
Model vs market
| Source | Juventus | Draw | Parma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 79% | 15% | 6% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Juventus
| 24 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Inter | 4–3 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 1–1 | D |
Parma
| 24 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Atalanta | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Sept | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 1 Feb 26 | ParmavsJuventus | 1 – 4 |
| 24 Aug 25 | JuventusvsParma | 2 – 0 |
Juventus: 2W 0D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Juventus (Home) | Parma (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 31.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.1% | 26.3% |
| Clean sheet | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.68 | 1.74 |
Home stats use Juventus's home record; away stats use Parma's away record this season.