Juventus vs Napoli — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Juventus
53%
Draw
26%
Napoli
22%
Expected goals
1.70–1.06
Juventus · Napoli
Juventus win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (10.5%), 2–1 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Juventus win is 1–0 (10.5%).
Juventus score at least twice in 51%; Napoli in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Napoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Juventus goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market reference | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 26% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.83 |
| Draw | 3.63 |
| Napoli | 4.32 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Juventus (Home · 4 matches) | Napoli (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Juventus's home record; away stats use Napoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.