Juventus vs Atalanta — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Juventus
57%
Draw
25%
Atalanta
18%
Expected goals
1.79–0.95
Juventus · Atalanta
Juventus win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Juventus win is 1–0 (11.1%).
Juventus score at least twice in 54%; Atalanta in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Atalanta goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Juventus goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market reference | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.76 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.96 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.96 1xBet |
| Atalanta | 5.26 | 5.00 | 4.60 | 5.18 | 5.20 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.10 | 4.27 | 5.26 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Juventus (Home · 3 matches) | Atalanta (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Juventus's home record; away stats use Atalanta's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.