Inter vs Napoli — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Inter
58%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Napoli
17%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Inter win 58.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter win. Expected goals 1.93–0.98 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (10.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Inter (Home · 3 matches) | Napoli (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 6.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Inter's home record; away stats use Napoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.