Inter vs Fiorentina — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Inter
72%
Draw
16%
Fiorentina
11%
Expected goals
2.67–0.93
Inter · Fiorentina
Inter win 72% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.5%), 3–0 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Inter score at least twice in 74%; Fiorentina in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Fiorentina goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Inter goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Market reference | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 72% | 16% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Inter | 1.35 |
| Draw | 5.75 |
| Fiorentina | 8.03 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Inter (Home · 4 matches) | Fiorentina (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.25 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Inter's home record; away stats use Fiorentina's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.