Genoa vs Juventus — Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Genoa
16%
Draw
25%
Juventus
59%
Expected goals
0.83–1.77
Genoa · Juventus
Juventus win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12.4%), 0–2 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Genoa score at least twice in 20%; Juventus in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Juventus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Genoa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market reference | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Metis Forecast | 16% | 25% | 59% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 5.59 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Juventus | 1.63 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genoa (Home · 4 matches) | Juventus (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Genoa's home record; away stats use Juventus's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.