Genoa vs Frosinone — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Genoa
43%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Frosinone
28%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Genoa win. Expected goals 1.48–1.25 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genoa (Home · 6 matches) | Frosinone (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Genoa's home record; away stats use Frosinone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.