Frosinone vs Torino — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Frosinone
44%
Draw
24%
Torino
31%
Expected goals
1.63–1.31
Frosinone · Torino
Frosinone win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Frosinone win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Frosinone score at least twice in 48%; Torino in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Torino goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Frosinone goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market reference | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 24% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Torino
| 23 Aug | H | vs AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sassuolo | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Frosinone (Home · 4 matches) | Torino (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Frosinone's home record; away stats use Torino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.