Frosinone vs Lecce — Serie A forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Frosinone
51%
Draw
26%
Lecce
23%
Expected goals
1.81–1.14
Frosinone · Lecce
Frosinone win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.3%), 2–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Frosinone win is 2–1 (9.3%).
Frosinone score at least twice in 54%; Lecce in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Lecce goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Frosinone goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 26% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1.88 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Lecce | 4.05 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Frosinone (Home · 4 matches) | Lecce (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Frosinone's home record; away stats use Lecce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.