Frosinone vs Como — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Frosinone
14%
Draw
21%
Como
65%
Expected goals
0.95–2.12
Frosinone · Como
Como win 65% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.8%), 0–2 (10.6%), 1–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Frosinone score at least twice in 24%; Como in 63%.
Scoreline distribution
Como goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Frosinone goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| Market reference | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 21% | 65% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 6.67 | 6.50 | 5.80 | 6.44 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 5.13 | 6.67 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.52 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.69 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 5.00 BetVictor |
| Como | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.55 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Como
| 22 Aug | A | vs Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Frosinone (Home · 3 matches) | Como (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Frosinone's home record; away stats use Como's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.