Fiorentina vs Napoli — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fiorentina
29%
Draw
28%
result
Napoli
43%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Napoli win. Expected goals 1.19–1.45 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 0–1 (9.6%), 1–2 (9.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fiorentina (Home · 5 matches) | Napoli (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Napoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.