Fiorentina vs Napoli — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Fiorentina
32%
Draw
28%
Napoli
40%
Expected goals
1.23–1.41
Fiorentina · Napoli
Napoli win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 0–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Fiorentina score at least twice in 35%; Napoli in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Napoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fiorentina goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 3.22 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.84 | 3.30 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.46 | 3.10 | 3.56 1xBet |
| Napoli | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.32 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fiorentina (Home · 3 matches) | Napoli (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Napoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.