Fiorentina vs Juventus — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fiorentina
25%
Draw
26%
Juventus
49%
Expected goals
1.17–1.66
Fiorentina · Juventus
Juventus win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (10.4%), 0–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Juventus win is 1–2 (10.4%).
Fiorentina score at least twice in 32%; Juventus in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Juventus goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fiorentina goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 26% | 49% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 3.76 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Juventus | 1.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fiorentina (Home · 5 matches) | Juventus (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Juventus's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.