Fiorentina vs Frosinone — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Fiorentina
58%
top pick
Draw
23%
Frosinone
19%
result
Final score
0–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Frosinone win 18.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fiorentina win. Expected goals 1.70–0.99 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.1%), 2–1 (12.5%), 1–1 (11.1%). It finished 0–3.
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Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fiorentina (Home · 3 matches) | Frosinone (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Frosinone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.