🇮🇹 Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:30

DLDWD

16:30

15th vs —

Frosinone

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Fiorentina	1.70	1.70
Draw	4.03	4.03
Frosinone	5.08	5.08

Metis Forecast

model + market

Fiorentina

58%

Draw

24%

Frosinone

19%

Fiorentina 1.73 xGexpected goals1.02 xG Frosinone

Fiorentina win 58% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 54% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (12.4%).

Fiorentina score at least twice in 53%; Frosinone in 27%.

2–1 12.4%1–0 12.4%1–1 11.3%2–0 10.0%0–0 6.6%3–1 6.0%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.6	4.4	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	12.4	11.3	4.5	1.9	0.6	0.2
2	10.0	12.4	4.7	1.4	0.4	0.1
3	4.8	6.0	3.7	1.0	0.2	0.1
4	1.7	2.2	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = Fiorentina goals · columns = Frosinone goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score54%

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Over 4.5 goals14%

Fiorentina clean sheet36%

Frosinone clean sheet16%

Fiorentina score 2+53%

Frosinone score 2+27%

Fiorentina score 3+24%

Model vs market

Source	Fiorentina	Draw	Frosinone
Raw Metis model	41%	28%	32%
Market (de-vigged)	58%	24%	19%
Metis Forecast	58%	24%	19%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Fiorentina

24 Aug	A	vs Cagliari	1–1	D
31 Aug	A	vs Torino	0–0	D
13 Sept	H	vs Napoli	1–3	L
21 Sept	H	vs Como	1–2	L
28 Sept	A	vs Pisa	0–0	D

No recent results.

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Fiorentina (Home)	Frosinone (Away)
BTTS rate	63.2%	—
Over 2.5 rate	42.1%	—
Clean sheet	31.6%	—
Avg goals	2.21	—

Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Frosinone's away record this season.

Fiorentina →🇮🇹 Serie A standings & fixtures