Fiorentina vs Atalanta — Serie A forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fiorentina
43%
Draw
27%
Atalanta
31%
Expected goals
1.47–1.27
Fiorentina · Atalanta
Fiorentina win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Fiorentina win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Fiorentina score at least twice in 44%; Atalanta in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Atalanta goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fiorentina goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market reference | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 27% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 2.25 |
| Draw | 3.54 |
| Atalanta | 3.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fiorentina (Home · 4 matches) | Atalanta (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Fiorentina's home record; away stats use Atalanta's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.