Como vs Sassuolo — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Como
64%
Draw
20%
Sassuolo
16%
Expected goals
2.06–0.96
Como · Sassuolo
Como win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.7%), 2–0 (10.7%), 1–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Como score at least twice in 62%; Sassuolo in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Sassuolo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Como goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market reference | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Como | 1.53 |
| Draw | 4.66 |
| Sassuolo | 5.87 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Como
| 22 Aug | A | vs Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Como (Home · 2 matches) | Sassuolo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Como's home record; away stats use Sassuolo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.