Como vs Parma — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Como
79%
pick · result
Draw
14%
Parma
6%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Como win 79.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Como win. Expected goals 2.39–0.65 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (14.5%), 1–0 (12.4%), 3–0 (10.7%). It finished 2–1.
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Como
| 22 Aug | A | vs Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Como (Home · 4 matches) | Parma (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Como's home record; away stats use Parma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.