Cagliari vs Lecce — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cagliari
46%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Lecce
24%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Cagliari win 46.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cagliari win. Expected goals 1.52–1.07 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 1–0 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cagliari (Home · 2 matches) | Lecce (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Cagliari's home record; away stats use Lecce's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.