🇮🇹 Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 7.94 | 7.94 |
| Draw | 4.64 | 4.64 |
| Inter | 1.43 | 1.43 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketCagliari
12%
Draw
20%
Inter
68%
Cagliari 0.78 xGexpected goals2.04 xG Inter
Inter win 68% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–2 (12.7%).
Cagliari score at least twice in 18%; Inter in 61%.
0–2 12.7%0–1 12.3%1–2 10.8%1–1 9.7%0–3 8.2%1–3 6.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Cagliari goals · columns = Inter goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score49%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Cagliari clean sheet12%
Inter clean sheet46%
Cagliari score 2+18%
Inter score 2+61%
Cagliari score 3+4%
Model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Metis Forecast | 12% | 20% | 68% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Cagliari
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Inter | 0–2 | L |
Inter
| 25 Aug | H | vs Torino | 5–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 3–4 | L |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 17 Apr 26 | IntervsCagliari | 3 – 0 |
| 27 Sept 25 | CagliarivsInter | 0 – 2 |
Cagliari: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Cagliari (Home) | Inter (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 36.8% | 42.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 36.8% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 31.6% | 52.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.37 | 3.05 |
Home stats use Cagliari's home record; away stats use Inter's away record this season.