Cagliari vs Inter — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cagliari
12%
Draw
20%
Inter
68%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Inter win 67.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter win. Expected goals 0.81–1.99 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (12.9%), 0–2 (12.6%), 1–2 (11.6%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cagliari (Home · 2 matches) | Inter (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Cagliari's home record; away stats use Inter's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.