Cagliari vs Frosinone — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cagliari
34%
Draw
26%
Frosinone
40%
Expected goals
1.42–1.53
Cagliari · Frosinone
Frosinone win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cagliari score at least twice in 41%; Frosinone in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Frosinone goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cagliari goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market reference | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cagliari | 2.78 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Frosinone | 2.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cagliari (Home · 4 matches) | Frosinone (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Cagliari's home record; away stats use Frosinone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.