Cagliari vs Bologna — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cagliari
30%
Draw
33%
Bologna
38%
Expected goals
1.12–1.30
Cagliari · Bologna
Bologna win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.5%), 0–0 (10.8%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cagliari score at least twice in 31%; Bologna in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Bologna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 15.5 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cagliari goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market reference | 30% | 33% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 33% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cagliari | 3.26 |
| Draw | 2.97 |
| Bologna | 2.57 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cagliari (Home · 3 matches) | Bologna (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.33 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Cagliari's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.