Bologna vs Torino — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bologna
49%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Torino
23%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bologna win. Expected goals 1.55–1.00 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–0 (9.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Torino
| 23 Aug | H | vs AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sassuolo | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bologna (Home · 5 matches) | Torino (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Bologna's home record; away stats use Torino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.