Bologna vs Sassuolo — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bologna
50%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Sassuolo
23%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bologna win. Expected goals 1.54–0.99 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (12.0%), 2–1 (10.1%). It finished 2–2.
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Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bologna (Home · 3 matches) | Sassuolo (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Bologna's home record; away stats use Sassuolo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.