Atalanta vs Parma — Serie A forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atalanta
68%
Draw
19%
Parma
12%
Expected goals
2.10–0.83
Atalanta · Parma
Atalanta win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.2%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Atalanta score at least twice in 63%; Parma in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Parma goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atalanta goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 23% | 14% |
| Market reference | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 19% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atalanta (Home · 4 matches) | Parma (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Atalanta's home record; away stats use Parma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.