Atalanta vs Frosinone — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atalanta
53%
Draw
23%
Frosinone
24%
Expected goals
1.97–1.21
Atalanta · Frosinone
Atalanta win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.5%), 2–1 (8.9%), 2–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Atalanta win is 2–1 (8.9%).
Atalanta score at least twice in 58%; Frosinone in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Frosinone goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atalanta goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market reference | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 23% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.84 |
| Draw | 4.20 |
| Frosinone | 3.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Frosinone
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juventus | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Venezia | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Como | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atalanta (Home · 4 matches) | Frosinone (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Atalanta's home record; away stats use Frosinone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.