Atalanta vs Cagliari — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Atalanta
57%
top pick
Draw
26%
Cagliari
18%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Cagliari win 17.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atalanta win. Expected goals 1.91–0.96 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–0 (10.0%), 1–0 (9.3%). It finished 1–2.
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Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Cagliari
| 22 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atalanta (Home · 6 matches) | Cagliari (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Atalanta's home record; away stats use Cagliari's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.