🇮🇹 Serie A·Monday, 31 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Bologna | 4.13 | 4.13 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAtalanta
51%
Draw
26%
Bologna
23%
Atalanta 1.64 xGexpected goals1.04 xG Bologna
Atalanta win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.5%).
Atalanta score at least twice in 49%; Bologna in 28%.
1–1 12.5%1–0 10.4%2–1 9.7%2–0 9.3%0–0 7.8%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Atalanta goals · columns = Bologna goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Atalanta clean sheet35%
Bologna clean sheet19%
Atalanta score 2+49%
Bologna score 2+28%
Atalanta score 3+23%
Model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 26% | 23% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Atalanta
| 24 Aug | H | vs Pisa | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 4–1 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Torino | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
Bologna
| 23 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | AtalantavsBologna | 0 – 1 |
| 7 Jan 26 | BolognavsAtalanta | 0 – 2 |
Atalanta: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Atalanta (Home) | Bologna (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 36.8% | 52.6% |
| Clean sheet | 36.8% | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.11 | 2.79 |
Home stats use Atalanta's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season.