Atalanta vs Bologna — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Atalanta
53%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Bologna
21%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Atalanta win 52.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atalanta win. Expected goals 1.68–1.02 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–0 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.1%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Atalanta
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atalanta (Home · 3 matches) | Bologna (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Atalanta's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.