St Mirren head into this one in dire shape, winning just once in their last five at home and sitting 11th in the table. Their home numbers are among the most extreme in the division — BTTS in just 11% of home games and Over 2.5 in only 22%, both drastically below the league averages of 51% and 52% respectively. They keep clean sheets regularly but are also struggling badly to score, averaging just 0.6 goals per home game.

Dundee United away, however, tell a very different story. They trigger BTTS in 61% of road trips and clear 2.5 goals in 56% of them, while keeping a clean sheet in just 6% of away fixtures. Their attacking output on the road is solid, but they concede heavily too.

The clash of styles is the key tension here. Dundee United's recent H2H dominance and superior league position make them hard to oppose, and this looks tighter than a straightforward home win narrative would suggest.