St Johnstone vs Motherwell — Scottish Premiership forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Johnstone
37%
Draw
28%
Motherwell
35%
Expected goals
1.34–1.33
St Johnstone · Motherwell
St Johnstone win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
St Johnstone score at least twice in 39%; Motherwell in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Motherwell goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Johnstone goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market reference | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 2.58 |
| Draw | 3.43 |
| Motherwell | 2.70 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Johnstone (Home · 5 matches) | Motherwell (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.60 |
Home stats use St Johnstone's home record; away stats use Motherwell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.