St Johnstone vs Hibernian — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Johnstone
32%
result
Draw
28%
Hibernian
39%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a St Johnstone win 32.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hibernian win. Expected goals 1.20–1.37 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (9.2%), 0–0 (8.7%). It finished 2–1.
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St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Johnstone (Home · 4 matches) | Hibernian (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Home stats use St Johnstone's home record; away stats use Hibernian's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.