St Johnstone vs Falkirk — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Johnstone
47%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Falkirk
26%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Johnstone win. Expected goals 1.38–0.99 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.9%), 1–1 (12.7%), 0–0 (9.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Falkirk
| 1 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Johnstone (Home · 6 matches) | Falkirk (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.17 | 1.83 |
Home stats use St Johnstone's home record; away stats use Falkirk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.