St Johnstone vs Dundee — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Johnstone
43%
Draw
25%
Dundee
33%
Expected goals
1.39–1.20
St Johnstone · Dundee
St Johnstone win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–0 (10.4%), 2–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Johnstone win is 1–0 (10.5%).
St Johnstone score at least twice in 41%; Dundee in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Dundee goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Johnstone goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market reference | 43% | 25% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 25% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
| Dundee | 2.91 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Dundee
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Aberdeen | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Dundee Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 2 Sept 26 | DundeevsSt Johnstone | 1 – 1 |
St Johnstone: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | St Johnstone (Home · 6 matches) | Dundee (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.17 | 2.40 |
Home stats use St Johnstone's home record; away stats use Dundee's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.