Rangers vs St Johnstone — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rangers
80%
Draw
13%
St Johnstone
6%
Expected goals
2.83–0.59
Rangers · St Johnstone
Rangers win 80% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.4%), 3–0 (12.3%), 4–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 41% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Rangers score at least twice in 76%; St Johnstone in 12%.
Scoreline distribution
St Johnstone goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rangers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| Market reference | 80% | 13% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 80% | 13% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rangers | 1.21 |
| Draw | 6.61 |
| St Johnstone | 12.42 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rangers
| 31 Jul | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rangers (Home · 4 matches) | St Johnstone (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Rangers's home record; away stats use St Johnstone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.