Hearts arrive at Fir Park in imperious form, winning four of their last five away from home and sitting top of the Premiership. That consistency on the road is backed by strong attacking output, with their away matches going over 2.5 goals in 59% of games — well above the league average of 52%. Recent head-to-head history also favours the visitors, who have not lost in three meetings against Motherwell.

The complication is Motherwell's defensive record at home, which is exceptional. A clean sheet rate of 71% in home games, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average, tells a story of a side that is genuinely difficult to break down on their own patch. Their BTTS rate of just 29% at home sits far below the league average of 51%.

This looks tighter than it might appear on the surface. Expect a low-scoring, competitive contest — the data suggests Hearts have the quality to edge it, but Motherwell's home fortress makes this far from straightforward.