Celtic arrive at Fir Park in commanding form, winning four of their last five away from home, and the head-to-head record reinforces their authority in this fixture with two wins from three recent meetings. Motherwell sit fourth but their home numbers tell a cautious story — a clean sheet rate of 71% and BTTS of just 29% against a league average of 51% points to a side that defends deep and keeps things tight at home.

The interesting tension here is that Celtic's away matches have produced BTTS in 61% of games, well above the league average, suggesting they carry enough attacking threat to breach most defences. But Motherwell's defensive structure at home has been genuinely difficult to break down this season, conceding just 0.5 goals per home game on average.

This looks tighter than a straightforward Celtic win narrative might suggest. The visitors are the logical favourites, but Motherwell's defensive discipline makes this worth watching closely.