Livingston have been a goalscorer's paradise at home this season, with BTTS landing in 88% of their home fixtures — well above the Scottish Premiership average of 51% — and they have kept zero clean sheets on their own patch. That defensive fragility is hard to ignore, and combined with an average of 1.9 goals conceded per home game, there is plenty for Kilmarnock to work with. Kilmarnock's away record shows some resilience in recent weeks, winning two of their last three on the road, though they average just a goal per away game.

The head-to-head record is tight, with no wins for Livingston across the last three meetings, and both sides sitting in the bottom half of the table adds a scrappy, hard-fought dimension to this fixture. Livingston's home over 2.5 rate of 71% against a league average of 52% points strongly toward an open game. This looks like a high-tempo, goal-friendly contest, and the visitors may be slightly undervalued given recent momentum.