Livingston arrive at this fixture in poor shape, failing to win any of their last five and sitting bottom of the table in twelfth. Their home record this season tells a chaotic story - an 88% BTTS rate and zero clean sheets is extraordinarily high against a league average of 51%, meaning goals are almost guaranteed when they play at home, but rarely in their favour.

Aberdeen's away form is the counterweight that makes this fixture genuinely interesting. They have kept clean sheets in nearly a quarter of away games and their BTTS rate of just 18% on the road is one of the starkest figures in the division, suggesting they travel with defensive structure as a priority. They have also won two of the last three meetings with Livingston.

The data suggests this is a low-scoring affair by Livingston's standards, with Aberdeen's defensive discipline capable of suppressing the hosts' typically open style. The visitors look undervalued here.