Hibernian head into this one in uninspiring form, picking up just one win from their last five at Easter Road and sitting fifth in the table. Their home record tells an interesting story though — they have kept a clean sheet in half of their home games this season, conceding under a goal per game on average, which sits well below the league norm. That defensive solidity could matter here.

Celtic arrive in decent shape with four wins from their last five away from home, though they have been less watertight on the road than their domestic reputation might suggest, keeping clean sheets in fewer than a quarter of away fixtures. The H2H is evenly balanced across recent meetings, offering little clear steer.

The goal data is the most compelling angle. Hibernian's home BTTS rate of 44% sits noticeably below the league average of 51%, while Celtic's away BTTS of 59% pulls in the opposite direction. This looks tighter and lower-scoring than a neutral might expect.