Hearts vs St Johnstone — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hearts
54%
pick · result
Draw
24%
St Johnstone
22%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hearts win 54.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hearts win. Expected goals 1.79–0.91 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–0 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.6%). It finished 2–1.
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Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
St Johnstone
| 2 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hearts (Home · 3 matches) | St Johnstone (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Hearts's home record; away stats use St Johnstone's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.