Falkirk host Motherwell sitting two places below their visitors in the table, but recent form and head-to-head history paint a different picture. The Bairns are unbeaten across all three previous meetings this season, and while their last five results are mixed, they have shown a clear ability to perform at home. Motherwell arrive in poor shape on the road, with four losses from their last five away trips, and a clean sheet rate of 31% on the road that sounds reasonable until you consider they are still shipping over a goal per game on average.

The goal data here is notably sharp. Falkirk's home BTTS rate of 71% sits well above the league average of 51%, and their O2.5 rate of 59% also outpaces the division norm. Both sides tend to be involved in open, scoring affairs. This looks like fertile ground for goals, and Motherwell's travel form does little to suggest they will tighten things up. The hosts are undervalued given the H2H edge and Motherwell's struggles away from home.