Aberdeen arrive at Dens Park in decent nick, winning three of their last five on the road, and they carry a positive head-to-head record here having taken two of the last three meetings against Dundee. The hosts have shown some late-season resilience with back-to-back wins but remain inconsistent, and ninth place tells its own story.

The goal data is where this one gets interesting. Dundee's home games have been relatively open, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals both well above the league average. Aberdeen away, however, paint a very different picture — just 22% BTTS and 28% over 2.5, both dramatically below the league norm, suggesting they travel with defensive structure as a priority and are averaging under a goal per away game.

That clash of profiles makes this a difficult game to call on goals, but Aberdeen's away form and H2H edge means the visitors look undervalued here. This feels tighter than a mid-table derby might suggest.