Aberdeen head into this one in poor form, having won just once in their last five league outings, and their home record offers little comfort — keeping a clean sheet in only a quarter of home games while conceding an average of 1.3 per match. Kilmarnock arrive having shown more resilience on the road recently, picking up back-to-back away wins before drawing their last, though their defensive record travelling away from home is alarming, conceding at nearly 2.4 per game.

The goals data is the real story here. Kilmarnock's away BTTS rate of 69% and over 2.5 landing in 69% of away fixtures both sit well above the league average of 51%, pointing firmly toward an open, entertaining contest. Aberdeen's H2H dominance — two wins from three recent meetings — gives them a slight edge, but their current slump makes that advantage feel fragile. This looks like a game with goals in it regardless of which side edges the result.