Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vitoria Guimaraes
58%
Draw
25%
Maritimo
18%
Expected goals
1.61–0.82
Vitoria Guimaraes · Maritimo
Vitoria Guimaraes win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.8%), 2–0 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vitoria Guimaraes score at least twice in 48%; Maritimo in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Maritimo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vitoria Guimaraes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market reference | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 25% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Vitoria Guimaraes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
Maritimo
| 8 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria Guimaraes (Home · 4 matches) | Maritimo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Vitoria Guimaraes's home record; away stats use Maritimo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.