Sporting head into this one under pressure after a patchy run of form — two draws and a loss in their last five — though they remain locked in a title race from second place. At home this season they have been a scoring machine, averaging 3.0 goals per game, and their O2.5 rate of 81% stands well above the league average of 54%. Clean sheets have been a feature too, with Gil Vicente likely to find it difficult to create much going forward given they average just 1.2 goals per game away from home.

Gil Vicente arrive in sixth and have been inconsistent on the road, with only one win in their last five away trips. Their away BTTS and O2.5 figures sit right at the league average, making them a fairly unremarkable attacking threat in this context.

The data suggests Sporting's home dominance should reassert itself here, with goals likely flowing in one direction. This looks more comfortable for the hosts than recent wobbles might imply.