Santa Clara vs Braga — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Santa Clara
26%
Draw
30%
Braga
43%
Expected goals
0.96–1.22
Santa Clara · Braga
Braga win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.5%), 1–1 (13.9%), 0–0 (12.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 40% of outcomes; the other 60% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Santa Clara score at least twice in 25%; Braga in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Braga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Santa Clara goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Market reference | 26% | 30% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 30% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 3.84 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 3.19 | 3.85 Betano |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.26 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.12 | 2.75 | 3.30 Bet365 |
| Braga | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.17 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 2.08 | 2.11 | 2.17 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Santa Clara
| 10 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Santa Clara (Home · 4 matches) | Braga (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Santa Clara's home record; away stats use Braga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.