Rio Ave vs Braga — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rio Ave
15%
Draw
22%
Braga
63%
Expected goals
0.89–1.77
Rio Ave · Braga
Braga win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.2%), 1–2 (12.7%), 0–2 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Rio Ave score at least twice in 22%; Braga in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
Braga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rio Ave goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market reference | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 22% | 63% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Rio Ave
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rio Ave (Home · 5 matches) | Braga (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Rio Ave's home record; away stats use Braga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.